14 Teams That Have Exceeded or Failed My Preseason Expectations

 With some teams already playing up to six games and others as few as four, this sample size is enough to see that I have either grossly overestimated or underestimated certain teams. Here are the 14 teams that I failed to get right already.

Underachievers:

Texas A&M 

Prediction: 11-1

Record Currently: 3-2

How did they get here: I assumed their one loss would come against Alabama this week, but they've dropped two before their meeting with Saban's boys. They were blitzed by the biggest surprise of this season so far, Arkansas, and then had a sloppy game against Mississippi State on Saturday. Now, games against LSU, Ole Miss, and Auburn have the potential to increase that loss total and have Jimbo Fisher sweating in his hot seat.

Clemson

Prediction: 11-1

Record Currently: 3-2

How did they get here: A loss to Georgia is forgivable considering the way that the Bulldogs are playing, but a loss to NCST in overtime and two close calls against Boston College and Georgia Tech has some people pressing panic. ESPN's Paul Finebaum has already declared the end to their dynasty. The good news is that their schedule lightens up with Wake Forest looking like the only test left. The question will then be, can they fix their issues by the time they meet Virginia Tech or UNC in the ACC title game, barring a perfect run by NCST?

Washington

Prediction: 9-3

Record Currently: 2-3

How did they get here: It started with the biggest upset to begin the college season. The Montana Grizzlies (currently ranked 4th in the FCS) shut down the Huskies 13-7, which set up a beatdown in Ann Arbor the following week. They narrowly escaped 1-3 Cal in overtime and dropped a close game to the surprising Oregon State Beavers. The bad news is that they still have Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona State left on the docket.

Miami (FL)

Prediction: 10-2

Record Currently: 2-3

How did they get here: I don't think anybody expected the Hurricanes to beat Alabama to start the season, but then they stumbled against Appalachian State before getting dusting by Michigan State. The Hurricanes still had a chance to get to 3-2, but a chip-shot field goal went wide and Virginia escaped with a 30-28 win on Thursday in Miami. They have games with 5 teams that are currently above .500 left on the schedule.

Indiana

Prediction: 9-3

Record: 2-3

How did they get here: A tough schedule to begin has shown that maybe last year's hype was a one-year flash. Iowa is a monster right now, as are Penn State and Cincinnati, but they're likely going to be around 6-6 at best with Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State all left on their schedule. A shoulder injury to playmaker quarterback Michael Penix Jr. could also wreak havoc.

Northwestern

Prediction: 10-2

Record Currently: 2-3

How did they get here: It's truly my fault they are even on this list. I imagined a weak non-conference and no Penn State or Ohio State might breed some success. Instead, they've been beaten up by Duke and Michigan State, but neither of those was as bad as Saturday's 56-7 lashing by Nebraska. Pat Fitzgerald is safe in his job and there's still a chance they get to bowl eligibility, but it is not going to be easy.

Boise State

Prediction: 10-2

Record Currently: 2-3

How did they get here: The Andy Avalos era is off to a rough start in part to some tough non-conference scheduling. The Broncos have never been shy about playing Power 5 schools or elite Group of 5 schools, but they at least win one of those games. They were close against UCF and Oklahoma State but came away with losses in both. The big blow came this weekend against Nevada when the Wolfpack had a convincing win on the blue turf. To make matters worse, they take on BYU (5-0) this week and have games against San Diego State and Fresno State left as well.

Overachievers:

Michigan State

Prediction: 4-8

Record Currently: 5-0

How did they get here: Well two of their wins came against underachievers (Northwestern/Miami) and they've taken care of business against the rest of their schedule. Their first true test comes on Halloween eve when the Wolverines come to town. They've also got beef with the Big Ten schedule makers who have them finishing the season against Ohio State and Penn State.

Arkansas

Prediction: 4-8

Record Currently: 4-1

How did they get here: The Razorbacks have found success mainly against the state of Texas. It started with a feast on Rice before stunning both Texas and Texas A&M. This Cinderella story was briefly derailed as Georgia had a hog roast in their 37-0 win on Saturday. Life in the SEC West is never easy, but if they could become bowl eligible, it would be the first time since 2016.

Oregon State

Prediction: 4-8

Record Currently: 4-1

How did they get here: The Beavers are trying to make their first bowl appearance since 2013, but have their sights on a Pac-12 title first. An opening non-conference loss to Purdue has been followed by four straight wins, including throttling USC in L.A. The Pac-12 is wide open, so why not the Beavers?

Baylor

Prediction: 4-8

Record Currently: 4-1

How did they get here: After a rough 2020, the Bears have bounced back and have already doubled their win total from last year, thanks to an upset of Iowa State. They had a chance against Oklahoma State, but as they have all season, the Cowboys escaped with a narrow victory. A couple more wins and the Bears are back on the bowl scene.

Maryland

Prediction: 4-8

Record Currently: 4-1

How did they get here: Constant pretender Maryland finally won a decent non-conference game against West Virginia to begin the season and they've looked ok in their other wins. The reason they make this list is that they just need one more win to exceed my expectations and Rutgers, Indiana, and Minnesota are all left on the schedule. Of course, when they played an actual opponent, they got waxed 51-14 by Iowa. They still get Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Michigan State.

UTEP

Prediction: 4-8

Record Currently: 4-1

How did they get here: They got here because they have a weak schedule and have done what they needed to do to win these games. Conference USA is a dumpster fire and the Miners can easily navigate if they play fundamental football. Two more wins and they'll be bowl eligible for the first time since 2014. 

South Alabama

Prediction: 3-9

Record Currently: 3-1

How did they get here: Never had the Jaguars began a season 3-0 and they were a field goal away from stunning Louisiana Lafayette to get to 4-0, but alas, it was shanked and they remain at 3. South Alabama has plenty of Sun Belt bottom feeders left on the schedule to exceed my expectations and maybe even sneak into a bowl game.