2021 Final Rankings 100-85: USC, Florida State and Texas Enjoy Bowl Season From Home

 The 2021 regular season ended with Army and Navy, but it ended a long time ago for these 16 schools that aren't going to a bowl game. This list is full of programs with recent success, but in 2021, it was tougher sledding. USC, Florida State, Texas, and TCU all found themselves on the outside looking in. Here's a full look at those just on the cusp of winning.

100. 

USC (4-8, 93.3 WP, 51.5 LP)

Last Year Rank: 13

Preseason Rank: 12

Prediction: 10-2

Clay Helton's spot in the hot seat was avoided when the Trojans went 5-1 in 2020 and had high expectations in a wide-open Pac 12, but just two games in, he found himself getting his resume ready. The Trojans were thumped by Stanford and Helton was out (now the head coach of Georgia Southern). It got worse as they were pummeled by rivals Notre Dame and UCLA before dropping a game at home to BYU. USC got a win though as they lured Lincoln Riley away from Oklahoma and even got some of his top recruits to join him.

99. Bowling Green (4-8, 90.8 WP, 76.1 LP)

LYR: 125

PR: 127

Prediction: 3-9

It could only go up from 2020 when the Falcons failed to win a game, and they even barely exceeded my expectations. They certainly surprised the Golden Gophers as they went to Minnesota to claim the MAC's annual win over a Big Ten school. The year ended with a win, so hopefully, they can build on that momentum going into next year.

98. Texas State (4-8, 77 WP, 68.1 LP)

LYR: 114

PR: 121

Prediction: 4-8

Not only was my prediction right, but I also fulfilled my destiny of watching the Bobcats lose in Ypsilanti earlier this Fall. Texas State played it close all season, with seven of their contests coming down to within one score. The most embarrassing loss of the year came at home when they dropped a shootout against Incarnate Word (FCS).

97. Louisiana Monroe (4-8, 67.3 WP, 65.4 LP)

LYR: 126

PR: 128

Prediction: 1-11

The Warhawks were the pits in 2020 as they failed to win a single game. My one-win prediction looked solid early on as they narrowly escaped Deion Sanders' Jackson State squad (FCS), but ULM started to put things together under veteran coach (first year in Monroe) Terry Bowden. They won four of five and were in prime position for a bowl appearance. However, they lost to Texas State and Arkansas State to essentially end their season. They nearly came back from the dead with close calls against tougher in-state opponents LSU and Louisiana, but in the end, they finished short, but look strong going into 2022.

96. South Alabama (5-7, 116 WP, 62.6 LP)

LYR: 90

PR: 113

Prediction: 3-9

The Jaguars got off to a start that had them primed to go bowling at 5-3. They would close the season out with losses to Troy, Appalachian State, Tennessee, and an overtime thriller against Coastal Carolina to keep them home in December.

95. Charlotte (5-7, 110.8 WP, 99.3 LP)

LYR: 94

PR: 115

Prediction: 5-7

The 49ers made me look good by matching their prediction and then proving that Conference USA was wide open for anyone to take. It started with a stunner over Duke that set up a 4-2 start and then eventually a 5-4 mark, needing just one win in the final three games. Instead, they got waxed by Louisiana Tech, Marshall, and Old Dominion and finished the season on the outside looking in.

94. San Jose State (5-7, 110.6 WP, 37.9 LP)

LYR: 8

PR: 27

Prediction: 10-2

As right as I was about Charlotte, I missed the boat on the Spartans. San Jose State made big strides in 2020 but was desperate for one more win in 2021. That opportunity nearly came against Nevada, but the Wolfpack crushed the Spartans' rebellion. Their tough road continued with two of the conference's best, Fresno State and Utah State, and lost by a combined score of 88-26.

93. Troy (5-7, 96.4 WP, 42.1 LP)

LYR: 72

PR: 92

Prediction: 5-7

Even I knew it was going to be a tough year in the Sun Belt for the Trojans to get bowl eligible, but they certainly had their chances. Unfortunately for Chip Lindsey, the men of Troy lost their last three games by 79, and Lindsey lost his job. Former Kentucky Defensive Coordinator Jon Sumrall takes over as the new head coach with the expectations to restore Troy as a power in the soon-to-be-growing Sun Belt Conference.

92. Rutgers (5-7, 95.8 WP, 47.7 LP)

LYR: 92

PR: 83

Prediction: 6-6

The Scarlet Knights had an up and down season as they started 3-0 and nearly got a win over Michigan. Then they scored just 33 points in their next three games and were sitting at 3-4. Rutgers won two of their next three games but lost their final two by a combined score of 68-16.

91. Cal (5-7, 93.8 WP, 73.9 LP)

LYR: 107

PR: 87

Prediction: 6-6

The Bears were so close all season with five of their losses coming by seven points or less. The biggest setback came when Cal was struck with a COVID outbreak that saw them lose to a winless Arizona team. They did have to make up one game because of the virus and went out with an exclamation win over the slumping USC Trojans.

90.

Florida Atlantic (5-7, 77.6 WP, 66.7 LP)

LYR: 54

PR: 73

Prediction: 7-5

Well, I thought the Owls would turn out another bowl performance in 2021, but they couldn't win any of their final four games to clinch a bowl spot. In fact, the finale was a must-win for both FAU and Middle Tennessee State, but it was the Blue Raiders who earned a win and a trip to the Bahamas, while the Owls were left stuck in Boca Raton.

89. TCU (5-7, 77 WP, 39.6 LP)

LYR: 47

PR: 30

Prediction: 9-3

I did not have Gary Patterson failing to make it through the season anywhere in my prediction for the Horned Frogs but in 2022 it'll be the first time since 1999 that he won't be roaming the sidelines. TCU was fading in a Big 12 that is about to go through some major changes and the administration is looking for a fresh start in Sonny Dykes, who had success just in the Dallas-Forth Worth area at SMU. The Horned Frogs could've made it into a bowl, but were blown out by Iowa State to end the season.

88. Syracuse (5-7, 70.2 WP, 53.3 LP)

LYR: 119

PR: 111

Prediction: 4-8

A different bounce against either Clemson or Wake Forest and Syracuse would've been bowling in a low-end ACC tie-in, but instead, they are resigned to moping around upstate New York. To make matters worse, they were outscored 113-34 in their final three chances to get the coveted sixth win.

87. Florida State (5-7, 61.4 WP, 57.3 LP)

LYR: 96

PR: 76

Prediction: 7-5

The Mike Norvell era in Tallahassee might be short-lived. So far, the Seminoles are just 8-13 under his guidance and one of those losses came against Jacksonville State (FCS). They had a chance to become bowl eligible in the final week against rival Florida, but a botched onside kick was a microcosm of the Seminoles' failures and the Gators eeked out a 24-21 win.

86. Illinois (5-7, 56 WP, 57.6 LP)

LYR: 110

PR: 97

Prediction: 4-8

All things considered, 5-7 isn't terrible when the Illini started 2-5, including a loss to UTSA, which isn't as shocking after the Roadrunners went 12-1 and won Conference USA. They won three of the final five, including two against bowl-bound teams in Penn State and Minnesota. The win over the Nittany Lions was a 9 overtime defensive thriller, the most in FBS history.

85.

Texas (5-7, 55 WP, 46.4 LP)

LYR: 30

PR: 24

Prediction: 8-4

The Longhorns entered the Red River Shootout 4-1 and took a 41-30 lead into the fourth quarter, while essentially costing Heisman hopeful Spencer Rattler (transferred to South Carolina at the end of the season) his job. Then the legend of Caleb Williams was born and it was "Horns Down" from there. The Sooners scored 25 in the fourth quarter to win 55-48. The season spiraled out of control from there with losses to Oklahoma State, Baylor, Iowa State, and West Virginia. But without question, the worst loss came in overtime against Kansas, who hadn't won a Big 12 game in years, let alone on the road. The Jayhawks blew a late lead but won it in overtime when they went for two after they answered a Longhorns' touchdown. The Steve Sarkisian era avoided complete embarrassment with a win over Kansas State to close out the season.

So Long, and Thanks for All the Losses: FIU is the King of the Bottom 30

 The regular season has come to an end, and for teams on this list, it couldn't have happened sooner. After all the yards and points allowed, the FIU Panthers claim the uncoveted #130 spot on the Pool Poll. The Bottom 30 is a benchmark that I use to identify the weakest parts of a conference. The more teams in the Bottom 30, the weaker the conference. 

A lot of the teams are repeat offenders, but there is hope for next year. Northern Illinois went from #124 to winning the MAC West, while Baylor was #111 last season before they made an appearance in the Big 12 Championship. Michigan State, Oregon State, and Arkansas all improved from the Bottom 30 to move into the Top 50 and a bowl appearance this year.

Here's the worst of the worst for the 2021 College Football season:

130. Florida International (1-11, 131 WP, 91.4 LP)

Last Year Ranking: 128

Preseason Rank: 124

Prediction: 4-8

For the second straight season, the Panthers are the bottom of the bottom. Butch Davis found his job posted on the school's website before he was actually dismissed. This sort of dysfunction has me scratching my head as to why I thought they could win 4 games this year. FIU lost 5 games by 30 points or more and their lone win came against Long Island University (FCS) in Week 1. As of this moment, the Panthers have yet to find a new head ball coach for the 2022 season.

129. UConn (1-11, 131 WP, 62.5 LP)

LYR: Did not play due to COVID

PR: 130

Prediction: 3-9

After losing a very winnable game against Holy Cross (FCS), Randy Edsall decided to resign/retire/get the heck out of Storrs. The Huskies nearly beat Vanderbilt and Wyoming before finally holding off Yale (FCS) in a 21-15 nail biter. Jim Mora Jr. was hired to lead a UConn squad that has won just 3 games in the last two seasons.

128. UMass (1-11, 128 WP, 79.8 LP)

LYR: 120

PR: 126

Prediction: 3-9

The Minutemen had several chances to make my prediction a reality. They checked off one box with a win over UConn, but then stunningly lost back-to-back games to FCS schools. A matchup between one-win teams in the final week still saw UMass on the short end. Also on the short end was Walt Bell, who won just 3 games in three years before he was fired and replaced by former Minutemen head coach, Don Brown.

127. Arizona (1-11, 100 WP, 61.4 LP)

LYR: 123

PR: 109

Prediction: 3-9

It took a visit from a COVID-stricken Cal squad before Arizona finally got their first win since 2019, but there were other chances. The Wildcats were within a score in three of their contests, including the shocking 21-19 loss to Nothern Arizona (FCS). Jedd Fisch can only improve in his second season.

126. New Mexico State (2-10, 129 WP, 66 LP)

LYR: 69

PR: 103

Prediction: 2-10

I did it! I finally got one right! The Aggies closed out the season with a win over Umass to send Doug Martin out a winner, something he would've probably enjoyed before he found out his contract wasn't getting renewed.

125. Vanderbilt (2-10, 126 WP, 61.3 LP)

LYR: 127

PR: 117

Prediction: 3-9

Clark Lea must have heard that I predicted 3 wins because the Commodores got blown out in week 1 by East Tennessee State (FCS). They did get wins over Colorado State and UConn, and nearly stunned Arkansas.

124. Tulane (2-10, 124.5 WP, 44.3 LP)

LYR: 60

PR: 75

Prediction: 4-8

The Green Wave looked like a threat in Week 1 as they challenged Oklahoma, but then it turns out that the Sooners weren't actually as good as everyone thought. Tulane earned its wins against Morgan State (FCS) and USF, while 5 of their losses were by one score.

123. Akron (2-10, 109 WP, 86 LP)

LYR: 116

PR: 123

Prediction: 2-10

Hey, look, a spot-on prediction! The Zips were bad, but not bad enough to lose to Bryant (FCS) and Bowling Green. Tom Arth won't be there to see if things get better as the Zips have moved on in search of someone to at least get them to a bowl game. That man was recently named to be Joe Moorhead.

122. Indiana (2-10, 106 WP, 32.1 LP)

LYR: 19

PR: 13

Prediction: 9-3

I, like a lot of people, thought Indiana had taken the next step in their program's history, but instead, the Hoosiers laid an egg. That egg was an 0-9 Big Ten record including eight straight conference losses to close out the season. Their lone wins came against Idaho (FCS) and Western Kentucky, but even that was a struggle. Tom Allen took a pay cut and some of his assistants won't be back for next season.

121.  Arkansas State (2-10, 105.5 WP, 62.1 LP)

LYR: 89

PR: 99

Prediction: 4-8

The Red Wolves could have easily met my four win prediction had they won a couple of their 5 one-score losses this season, including a two-point loss to Texas State to close the season. The Butch Jones era got off to a bumpy start, but they showed promise in spots this season. Look for a much better outcome in 2022.

120. Kansas (2-10, 104 WP, 51.8 LP)

LYR: 121

PR: 119

Prediction: 1-11

The first team on this list to exceed my expectations thanks to a two-point conversion in overtime that stunned Texas. It was especially shocking since the Jayhawks had never won in Austin, and hadn't won a Big 12 road game since 2008. The other win came narrowly against South Dakota (FCS) to open the season. Lance Leipold came over from Buffalo in April after Les Miles was fired for misconduct allegations.

119. South Florida (2-10, 104 WP, 46.7 LP)

LYR: 118

PR: 120

Prediction: 1-11

The Bulls barely exceeded my expectations after they beat a fledgling Temple Owls team to go with a win over Florida A&M (FCS). USF had three one-score losses, but at least Jeff Scott can say he doubled his win totals from last season.

118. UNLV (2-10, 99 WP, 54.3 LP)

LYR: 122

PR: 122

Prediction: 2-10

While I had the Rebels getting two wins, including New Mexico, I wasn't so sure about their win over Hawai'i. UNLV was competitive as they lead San Diego State and Utah State before losing. Both games were by less than one score and were among the six similar losses the Rebels suffered in 2021.

117. Southern Miss (3-9, 124.3 WP, 69.9 LP)

LYR: 101

PR: 107

Prediction: 6-6

Conference USA is always difficult to guess who is going to be good and who's not. The many problems that faced the Golden Eagles stemmed from a lack of quarterback. Whether it was do to injury, or poor performance, Will Hall couldn't get anyone under center with any consistency. He developed an ingenious plan to get the most out of his top playmaker, Frank Gore Jr., and used his star running back as his QB. Gore ran and even threw for enough touchdowns to pick up back-to-back wins to end the season. Their other win came against Grambling (FCS), but only one of their losses were by less than 10 points.

116. Georgia Southern (3-9, 116.3 WP, 48.3 LP)

LYR: 44

PR: 79

Prediction: 7-5

The Eagles got off to a 1-3 start which could have been forgivable, had their not been a video of a player shotgunning a beer while standing on top of a moving bus. That got Chad Lunsford fired and Georgia Southern struggled to a 2-6 record the rest of the way. Clay Helton takes over the reins after he was fired by USC around the same time as Lunsford.

115. Duke (3-9, 113.3 WP, 61.1 LP)

LYR: 113

PR: 100

Prediction: 4-8

Had they not lost to Charlotte in the home opener, the four-win prediction would've been spot on. Either way, I don't think a fourth win would've salvaged David Cutcliffe's job after they began the year 3-1. Defense was a major problem as the Blue Devils allowed at least 31 points in nine of their contests.

114. Northwestern (3-9, 111.3 WP, 58.6 LP)

LYR: 17

PR: 23

Prediction: 10-2

Like Indiana, my expectations for Northwestern were doomed from the start. The Wildcats weren't even close either. 7 of their contests were lost by more than 10 points. I don't think Pat Fitzgerald is in the hot seat, but the Wildcats will definitely look to improve in 2022.

113. Louisiana Tech (3-9, 104.7 WP, 65.1 LP)

LYR: 58

PR: 67

Prediction: 8-4

Conference USA strikes again in my predictions, because who knows what to expect. Skip Holtz is out as the head coach in Ruston, and Sonny Cumbie is in to breathe some life into the offense. La Tech missed a field goal and a chance to upset Mississippi State in Week 1, but then they barely survived Southeastern Louisiana (FCS) in Week 2. The Bulldogs finished the season losing seven of their last eight.

112. New Mexico (3-9, 98 WP, 50.4 LP)

LYR: 105

PR: 116

Prediction: 4-8

The Lobos started off 2-0, but then seven of their next nine came against bowl-eligible teams. The biggest problem for New Mexico is that they lost the one matchup against the lone team with a losing record during that stretch, UNLV. Danny Gonzales has got to be feeling some heat in his seat, so getting off to a great start in 2022.

111. Nebraska (3-9, 94.7 WP, 34 LP)

LYR: 85

PR: 70

Prediction: 5-7

There was no better three-win team in college than the Cornhuskers. Arguably the toughest schedule in the Big Ten as they had to face all the top dogs from the West, but also Michigan, Ohio State, and Michigan State were there three teams from the East. Scott Frost's expression throughout the season was consistent, a look of complete disbelief and disappointment. All nine losses by Nebraska saw them with a chance to tie or win the game in the fourth quarter, only to blow those opportunities. Surprisingly, Frost was extended with the hopes that he can return them to his playing days. Hey, it finally worked for Jim Harbaugh this season, so why not Frost in 2022?

110. Colorado State (89.3 WP, 73 LP)

LYR: 108

PR: 108

Prediction: 3-9

Unlike Frost, Steve Addazio will be brushing off his resume after just two years in Colorado Springs. The Rams lost their final six games after starting the year 3-3, with wins over Toledo, New Mexico, and San Jose State. They nearly earned a Power 5 win with a victory over Vanderbilt, but it came up short in the fourth quarter.

109. Temple (3-9, 86 WP, 68.2 LP)

LYR: 117

PR: 114

Prediction: 5-7

After three seasons in Philadelphia, Rod Carey is out of a job as he could not translate his success at Northern Illinois to success at Temple. The Owls actually jumped out to a 3-2 record with wins over Memphis, Wagner (FCS), and Akron, but they would drop their last seven contests, all lost by more than 20 points.

108. Georgia Tech (3-9, 81.3 WP, 56 LP)

LYR: 103

PR: 93

Prediction: 3-9

The former head coach at Temple, Geoff Collins, did not get fired, but a great number of his staff did, so the pressure will be on in 2022. The Yellow Jackets had an up and down first half of the season as they opened with a loss to Northern Illinois, then nearly defeated Clemson. After the smoke cleared, they were 3-3 and had a chance to play spoiler in the ACC. Instead, they lost six straight including their final two to Notre Dame and Georgia by a combined score of 100-0.

107. Ohio (3-9, 79.7 WP, 106.9 LP)

LYR: 43

PR: 62

Prediction: 5-7

Frank Solich retired just before the season started, so Tim Albin had little time to adjust his staff and get the Bobcats ready for the season. That proved difficult as they dropped seven of their first eight, including an embarrassing loss to Duquesne (FCS) in overtime. They briefly reentered the MAC East discussion with wins over teams with winning records in Miami (OH) and Eastern Michigan. Unfortunately, the Bobcats dropped their final two and couldn't sneak into the MAC Championship.

106. Stanford (3-9, 32 WP, 52.8 LP)

LYR:  38

PR: 33

Prediction: 7-5

David Shaw's teams are usually a competitive bunch and that showed in their win over a Top 10 team in Oregon. They also added wins over Vanderbilt and USC to start the year 3-2. Then they fell off losing seven straight and the final four by 126 points.

105. Navy (3-8, 86.7 WP, 40.6 LP)

LYR: 102

PR: 106

Prediction: 2-10

The Midshipmen exceeded my expectations, barely, but they technically aren't done yet. Navy can right the ship next Saturday with a win against Army to notch their fourth win. They'll look to avenge a 15-0 loss last year at the hands of the Knights. 

104. Buffalo (4-8, 116 WP, 67.6 LP)

LYR: 11

PR:  45

Prediction: 9-3

The Bulls might have been as good as predicted, but Lance Leipold left in April to take the job in Kansas. Maurice Linguist took over and watched as his team went just 1-4 down the stretch. 

103. Washington (4-8, 104.3 WP, 57.1 LP)

LYR: 25

PR: 19

Prediction: 9-3

Like Indiana and Northwestern before them, the Huskies had great preseason expectations in 2021 after big years in 2020. Instead, they laid an egg right off the bat with a 13-7 loss to Montana (FCS) that knocked them out of the Top 25. Michigan throttled them at the Big House before they won four straight against Cal, Arkansas State, Arizona, and Stanford. Then Jimmy Lake was fired for personal misconduct and the Huskies fell apart all the way.  They dropped their last four that included a 40-13 beatdown by rival Washington State to end their season. They were able to lure away a hot coach in Kalen DeBoer, who led a strong Fresno State the past two seasons.

102. Rice (4-8, 99.8 WP, 75.9 LP)

LYR: 79

PR: 101

Prediction: 3-9

The Owls picked up a win over Louisiana Teach to end the year and salvage another disappointing season in Houston. Wins in their two overtime games would've made Rice bowl eligible, but those tough losses have them on the sideline.

101. Colorado (4-8, 99.5 WP, 64.1 LP)

LYR: 40

PR: 38

Prediction: 6-6

The Buffs had a weird season as they nearly upset Texas A&M, but then followed with three straight blowout losses. They righted the ship briefly with a win over Arizona, but more losing followed. Their best win came in a double-overtime thriller against Oregon State.