The 2021 regular season ended with Army and Navy, but it ended a long time ago for these 16 schools that aren't going to a bowl game. This list is full of programs with recent success, but in 2021, it was tougher sledding. USC, Florida State, Texas, and TCU all found themselves on the outside looking in. Here's a full look at those just on the cusp of winning.
100.
Last Year Rank: 13
Preseason Rank: 12
Prediction: 10-2
Clay Helton's spot in the hot seat was avoided when the Trojans went 5-1 in 2020 and had high expectations in a wide-open Pac 12, but just two games in, he found himself getting his resume ready. The Trojans were thumped by Stanford and Helton was out (now the head coach of Georgia Southern). It got worse as they were pummeled by rivals Notre Dame and UCLA before dropping a game at home to BYU. USC got a win though as they lured Lincoln Riley away from Oklahoma and even got some of his top recruits to join him.
99. Bowling Green (4-8, 90.8 WP, 76.1 LP)
LYR: 125
PR: 127
Prediction: 3-9
It could only go up from 2020 when the Falcons failed to win a game, and they even barely exceeded my expectations. They certainly surprised the Golden Gophers as they went to Minnesota to claim the MAC's annual win over a Big Ten school. The year ended with a win, so hopefully, they can build on that momentum going into next year.
98. Texas State (4-8, 77 WP, 68.1 LP)
LYR: 114
PR: 121
Prediction: 4-8
Not only was my prediction right, but I also fulfilled my destiny of watching the Bobcats lose in Ypsilanti earlier this Fall. Texas State played it close all season, with seven of their contests coming down to within one score. The most embarrassing loss of the year came at home when they dropped a shootout against Incarnate Word (FCS).
97. Louisiana Monroe (4-8, 67.3 WP, 65.4 LP)
LYR: 126
PR: 128
Prediction: 1-11
The Warhawks were the pits in 2020 as they failed to win a single game. My one-win prediction looked solid early on as they narrowly escaped Deion Sanders' Jackson State squad (FCS), but ULM started to put things together under veteran coach (first year in Monroe) Terry Bowden. They won four of five and were in prime position for a bowl appearance. However, they lost to Texas State and Arkansas State to essentially end their season. They nearly came back from the dead with close calls against tougher in-state opponents LSU and Louisiana, but in the end, they finished short, but look strong going into 2022.
96. South Alabama (5-7, 116 WP, 62.6 LP)
LYR: 90
PR: 113
Prediction: 3-9
The Jaguars got off to a start that had them primed to go bowling at 5-3. They would close the season out with losses to Troy, Appalachian State, Tennessee, and an overtime thriller against Coastal Carolina to keep them home in December.
95. Charlotte (5-7, 110.8 WP, 99.3 LP)
LYR: 94
PR: 115
Prediction: 5-7
The 49ers made me look good by matching their prediction and then proving that Conference USA was wide open for anyone to take. It started with a stunner over Duke that set up a 4-2 start and then eventually a 5-4 mark, needing just one win in the final three games. Instead, they got waxed by Louisiana Tech, Marshall, and Old Dominion and finished the season on the outside looking in.
94. San Jose State (5-7, 110.6 WP, 37.9 LP)
LYR: 8
PR: 27
Prediction: 10-2
As right as I was about Charlotte, I missed the boat on the Spartans. San Jose State made big strides in 2020 but was desperate for one more win in 2021. That opportunity nearly came against Nevada, but the Wolfpack crushed the Spartans' rebellion. Their tough road continued with two of the conference's best, Fresno State and Utah State, and lost by a combined score of 88-26.
93. Troy (5-7, 96.4 WP, 42.1 LP)
LYR: 72
PR: 92
Prediction: 5-7
Even I knew it was going to be a tough year in the Sun Belt for the Trojans to get bowl eligible, but they certainly had their chances. Unfortunately for Chip Lindsey, the men of Troy lost their last three games by 79, and Lindsey lost his job. Former Kentucky Defensive Coordinator Jon Sumrall takes over as the new head coach with the expectations to restore Troy as a power in the soon-to-be-growing Sun Belt Conference.
92. Rutgers (5-7, 95.8 WP, 47.7 LP)
LYR: 92
PR: 83
Prediction: 6-6
The Scarlet Knights had an up and down season as they started 3-0 and nearly got a win over Michigan. Then they scored just 33 points in their next three games and were sitting at 3-4. Rutgers won two of their next three games but lost their final two by a combined score of 68-16.
91. Cal (5-7, 93.8 WP, 73.9 LP)
LYR: 107
PR: 87
Prediction: 6-6
The Bears were so close all season with five of their losses coming by seven points or less. The biggest setback came when Cal was struck with a COVID outbreak that saw them lose to a winless Arizona team. They did have to make up one game because of the virus and went out with an exclamation win over the slumping USC Trojans.
90.
LYR: 54
PR: 73
Prediction: 7-5
Well, I thought the Owls would turn out another bowl performance in 2021, but they couldn't win any of their final four games to clinch a bowl spot. In fact, the finale was a must-win for both FAU and Middle Tennessee State, but it was the Blue Raiders who earned a win and a trip to the Bahamas, while the Owls were left stuck in Boca Raton.
89. TCU (5-7, 77 WP, 39.6 LP)
LYR: 47
PR: 30
Prediction: 9-3
I did not have Gary Patterson failing to make it through the season anywhere in my prediction for the Horned Frogs but in 2022 it'll be the first time since 1999 that he won't be roaming the sidelines. TCU was fading in a Big 12 that is about to go through some major changes and the administration is looking for a fresh start in Sonny Dykes, who had success just in the Dallas-Forth Worth area at SMU. The Horned Frogs could've made it into a bowl, but were blown out by Iowa State to end the season.
88. Syracuse (5-7, 70.2 WP, 53.3 LP)
LYR: 119
PR: 111
Prediction: 4-8
A different bounce against either Clemson or Wake Forest and Syracuse would've been bowling in a low-end ACC tie-in, but instead, they are resigned to moping around upstate New York. To make matters worse, they were outscored 113-34 in their final three chances to get the coveted sixth win.
87. Florida State (5-7, 61.4 WP, 57.3 LP)
LYR: 96
PR: 76
Prediction: 7-5
The Mike Norvell era in Tallahassee might be short-lived. So far, the Seminoles are just 8-13 under his guidance and one of those losses came against Jacksonville State (FCS). They had a chance to become bowl eligible in the final week against rival Florida, but a botched onside kick was a microcosm of the Seminoles' failures and the Gators eeked out a 24-21 win.
86. Illinois (5-7, 56 WP, 57.6 LP)
LYR: 110
PR: 97
Prediction: 4-8
All things considered, 5-7 isn't terrible when the Illini started 2-5, including a loss to UTSA, which isn't as shocking after the Roadrunners went 12-1 and won Conference USA. They won three of the final five, including two against bowl-bound teams in Penn State and Minnesota. The win over the Nittany Lions was a 9 overtime defensive thriller, the most in FBS history.
85.
Texas (5-7, 55 WP, 46.4 LP)
LYR: 30
PR: 24
Prediction: 8-4
The Longhorns entered the Red River Shootout 4-1 and took a 41-30 lead into the fourth quarter, while essentially costing Heisman hopeful Spencer Rattler (transferred to South Carolina at the end of the season) his job. Then the legend of Caleb Williams was born and it was "Horns Down" from there. The Sooners scored 25 in the fourth quarter to win 55-48. The season spiraled out of control from there with losses to Oklahoma State, Baylor, Iowa State, and West Virginia. But without question, the worst loss came in overtime against Kansas, who hadn't won a Big 12 game in years, let alone on the road. The Jayhawks blew a late lead but won it in overtime when they went for two after they answered a Longhorns' touchdown. The Steve Sarkisian era avoided complete embarrassment with a win over Kansas State to close out the season.
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