Wednesday, August 3, 2022

Conference Outlook: The PAC-12 is a Sinking Ship

 Already the least respected of the Power 5 schools when it comes to football in the last 5 years, the "Conference of Champions" is going to be losing its two most prominent programs in USC and UCLA. The Trojans and Bruins head East to the Big Ten in 2024 and the Big 12 told the PAC-12 to kick rocks when it came to joining forces.

In 2022, the goal is to shut haters like me up as they have some huge games scheduled. In Week 1, Oregon faces Georgia in Atlanta, while Utah goes to Florida to take on the Gators. Arizona State heads to Oklahoma State, and Washington State travels to Wisconsin in Week 2; while Washington welcomes Michigan State in Week 3. Of course, Notre Dame finds itself on three different schedules with contests against Stanford, Cal, and USC.

There will be four new faces in the coaching ranks as Lincoln Riley leaves Oklahoma to lead the Trojans, Dan Lanning replaced Mario Cristobal at Oregon, Kalen DeBoer heads north from Fresno to Washington, and Jake Dickert takes over at Wazzu after Nick Rolovich was fired last year for not getting vaccinated.

The overall power rank for the PAC-12 is +4 which is the worst among all Power 5 schools.

Oregon, Utah, UCLA, Oregon State, and Arizona State all begin the year in the Top 50 while Arizona finds itself in the 100s. Here's the full list.

North

Oregon


Head Coach: Dan Lanning (1st Season)

Last Year Rank: 28 (10-4)

Preseason Rank: 11

Prediction: 9-3



The Ducks open up as the favorites in the North and will have not only a new head coach but a new quarterback as well. Bo Nix transfers in from Auburn and hopes to drive up his draft stock by the end of the year. There's not a lot returning offensively for the Ducks but the defense will bring back most of their starters. They did lose Keyvon Thibodeaux as their best pass rusher, but Noah Sewell returns as the team's leading tackler and looks to wreak havoc again. The "neutral" site game in Atlanta with the Bulldogs will be a good measuring stick for how far the Ducks are from becoming playoff bound.

Oregon State

Head Coach: Jonathan Smith (16-28, 5th Season)

LYR: 54 (7-6)

PR: 38

Prediction: 8-4




The Beavers have plenty of returning starters on both sides of the ball and can create problems for any team they face in 2022. They'll get a mini-test in Week 1 when they host Boise State and then head to Fresno State to take on a respectable Bulldogs squad. They are at Utah, but get both USC and Oregon at home this season. Could this be the year the Beavers make an appearance in the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1965?

Washington State


Head Coach: Jake Dickert (4-3, first full season)

LYR: 58 (7-6)

PR: 68

Prediction: 6-6




The Cougars had an unexpected switch in coaches after Nick Rolovich's religious exemption to the COVID vaccine was denied by the school and he was let go halfway through the season. Dickert took over and led Wazzu to a bowl appearance where they came up just short against the Chippewa's in the Sun Bowl. The offense switches back to the Air Raid style they played under Mike Leach and they'll bring in a new quarterback to do the job. Cameron Ward comes over from Incarnate Word (FCS) where he put up video game numbers last season with 4,600 yards and 47 touchdowns while leading the Cardinals to the second round of the FCS Playoffs. Speedy receiver De'Zhaun Stribling should be a big target in the new offense and the Cougars could a fun team to watch in the PAC-12.

Cal

Head Coach: Justin Wilcox (26-28, 6th Season)

LYR: 91 (5-7)

PR: 77

Prediction: 5-7




The Cal Bears have the old problem that if you have more than one starting quarterback, you don't have any. Jack Plummer transfers in from Purdue, but he's not guaranteed the job just yet. The offense doesn't have much coming back, but the defense has a few key players. The secondary is arguably the deepest area for the Bears, but the return of Brett Johnson's sweet mustache to the defensive line should help a young front line.

Washington

Head Coach: Kalen DeBoer (1st Season)

LYR: 104 (4-8)

PR: 78

Prediction: 7-5



The Huskies had a tumultuous season both on and off the field. On the field, they were embarrassed by the Montana Grizzlies (FCS), and off-the-field head coach Jimmy Lake was creating a toxic environment after he shoved a player causing him to be suspended and eventually fired. Kalen DeBoer created an exciting offense at Indiana and took that to Fresno State for a brief tenure where he went 13-6 in 1.5 seasons. DeBoer lured his old QB, Michael Penix Jr. from Indiana to help lead the offense. There's not much returning offensively, but the defense does have a couple of studs on the defensive side of the ball.

Stanford

Head Coach: David Shaw (93-45, 12th Season)

LYR: 106 (3-9)

PR: 86

Prediction: 5-7



Last year was a rough one for David Shaw, but he's got the quarterback in Tanner McKee and plenty of depth at the skill positions to help him out. The defense returns a lot of key starters including one of the best names in college football, Kyu Blu Kelly. The problem for the Cardinal will be the schedule as they are loaded with the best of the south as well as a trip to South Bend and an end-of-season visit from BYU.

South:

Utah


Head Coach: Kyle Whittingham (144-70, 19th Season)

LYR: 27 (10-4)

PR: 14

Prediction: 9-3



The Utes were putting on a clinic in the Rose Bowl and they looked poised to destroy Ohio State, but then it turns out you have to cover Marvin Harrison Jr. and Jaxson Smith-Njigba. Utah hopes to avoid a similar embarrassment when they travel to Florida in Week 1 to face the Gators. Cameron Rising returns, as do a plethora of other starters on both sides of the ball. The steady hand of Whittingham will promise a well-coached team, but can they win the big game and avoid the trap game in Week 3 against San Diego State?

UCLA

Head Coach: Chip Kelly (18-25, 5th Season)

LYR: 39 (8-4)

PR: 30

Prediction: 9-3




The Trojans may have all the buzz in the city, but the Bruins performed well above USC last season including a 62-33 beatdown in their head-to-head matchup. Dorian Thompson-Robinson returns to lead the offense and he'll be handing the ball off to former Wolverine and the Bruins' leading rusher, Zach Charbonnet. UCLA has by far the easiest non-conference schedule for perhaps any Power 5 school with three straight home games against BGSU, Alabama State, and South Alabama. With Colorado as their first conference game, it should be an easy breezy September.

Arizona State


Head Coach: Herm Edwards (25-18, 5th Year)

LYR: 46 (8-5)

PR: 46

Prediction: 4-8



It's getting hotter and hotter in Tempe as the NCAA should be finished wrapping up its investigation of recruiting violations at Arizona State. Herm Edwards is still there, but many of his coordinators were fired or resigned. He's hoping Florida transfer Emory Jones is the answer at the QB position and gets a nice transfer in Wyoming running back Xazavian Valladay. Hopefully, this turmoil leads to unfocused play when the men from Ypsilanti step on the field and steal and upset, or at least I can dream.

USC


 Head Coach: Lincoln Riley (1st Season)

LYR: 101 (4-8)

PR: 57

Prediction: 9-3




The hottest new coaching hire has brought some new talent to L.A. as the Trojans will be the new home for quarterback Caleb Williams (Oklahoma), running backs Travis Dye (Oregon) and Austin Jones (Stanford), and receivers Mario Williams (Oklahoma) and Brenden Rice (Colorado and son of Jerry Rice). Can they put it all together quickly enough to dominate the PAC-12? As for their low preseason rank, in this poll you've got to earn it first, there are no paper titles in the second worst ranking system behind the BCS.

Colorado


Head Coach: Karl Dorrell (8-10, 3rd Season)

LYR: 102 (4-8)

PR: 94

Prediction: 3-9




The offense was putrid last year, averaging less than 20 points per game and that led to a mass exodus of starters. The Buffs haven't won anything significant since 2001 and that's not going to happen this year either. J.T. Shrout transfers over from Tennessee to take over the QB role.

Arizona


Head Coach: Jedd Fisch (1-11, 2nd Season)

LYR: 127 (1-11)

PR: 107

Prediction: 2-10




It can only get better from here, right? The Wildcats' lone win came against a Cal team that was depleted by positive COVID tests and still barely won that game 10-3. Quarterback Jayden de Laura was the PAC-12 Freshman Offensive Player of the Year at Washington State, so he'll look to bring his talents to the desert.


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