Thanks to some mid-afternoon MACtion that, of course, was decided by one possession, we can finally cement the placements of most of the bottom-tier teams in the country. Navy is holding up a few more spots on this list, but I'll take what I can get.
Predicting can be difficult at the beginning of the year, but for these schools, it was pretty obvious things weren't going to go well. The biggest miss was that Arkansas State would barely make a bowl game, but Butch Jones' squad was unable to make me look good. Really, I only got 20 predictions dead on the nose and was in the ballpark for about half. Here's a look at those who turned into guaranteed wins this season.
131. UMass (1-11, 133 WP, 91.2 LP)
Preseason Rank and Prediction: 129 (2-10)
Last Year Rank: 128
Recap: The only win in Don Brown's return to UMass was against Stony Brook (FCS) in Week 3. That second win nearly came against Arkansas State, but they only had only one other loss by one possession (EMU).
130. USF (1-11, 133, 59.6)
PR: 114 (3-9)
LYR: 119
Recap: The Bulls' lone win came against Howard (FCS) in Week 2, but they had four losses that came by one possession. Oddly enough, those close calls came against Florida, Cincinnati, and UCF. The axe came swinging for Jeff Scott and he was one of the first to hop on the coaching carousel.
129. Northwestern (1-11, 81, 59.2)
PR: 91 (4-8)
LYR: 114
Recap: The Wildcats had a wild victory in Dublin that got the ball rolling on Scott Frost being fired. That was literally the only high point as Northwestern will call the nation's longest losing streak into next season. The ugliest losses came at the hands of Southern Illinois (FCS) and Miami (OH), both at home.
128. Colorado (1-11, 58, 43.6)
PR: 94 (3-9)
LYR: 102
Recap: Whoever made this schedule was on the get Karl Dorrell fired so we can lure Deion Sanders here plan and boy did it work. Primetime will have a lot to fix after the Buffs were carved up with the lone exception coming against Cal in overtime. The schedule ended up including 9 bowl-bound teams with half of those in playoff contention at one point and time.
127. Nevada (2-10, 127, 87.6)
PR: 84 (4-8)
LYR: 48
Recap: The Ken Wilson era began on a high note with back-to-back wins over New Mexico State and Texas State. Then a collapse of Moutain West proportion watched the Wolfpack drop 10 straight, including a loss to UNLV to give up the Fremont Cannon.
126. Akron (2-10, 126, 81.6)
PR: 127 (2-10)
LYR: 123
Recap: The Zips were not the team to face at the end of the year after winning just one of their previous nine games (an overtime win over FCS St Francis, PA). Then a six-point loss to Co-MAC West Champs, EMU, a pummelling of NIU, and then they nearly kept Buffalo from becoming bowl eligible. That game was the epitome of MACtion and the Zips immediately fumbled after getting what seemed to be the game-sealing interception.
PR: 126 (2-10)
LYR: 112
Recap: The Lobos won big against Maine (FCS) and UTEP to begin the year 2-1, but they soon learned that they would be the worst team in the Land of Enchantment. New Mexico scored 10 points or less in seven of its final nine games, including a 21-9 loss to the much-improved Aggies of New Mexico State. Danny Gonzales might be on the hot seat if nothing improves.
124. Hawaii (3-10, 114.3, 82.1)
PR: 110 (4-9)
LYR: 82
Recap: The first year for Timmy Chang in his return to the islands was going to be tough, especially with a trip to Ann Arbor in the non-conference. The Rainbow Warriors showed signs of hope with wins over Duquesne (FCS), Nevada, and UNLV. Four of their losses were by one score, so that means at least half the time they were competitive. Also, if you wanted to know, you can listen to Hawaii's radio broadcast for free if you're ever up at 2:30 in the morning.
123. Temple (3-9, 127, 62.9)
PR: 117 (3-9)
LYR: 109
Recap: The Owls' victories came against two teams already listed above (USF/UMass) and FCS squad Lafayette. EJ Warner (son of Kurt Warner) took over at quarterback midway through the season and Temple had some close games with ECU, Houston, and Navy, but ended up on the wrong side of the scoreboard.
122. Colorado State (3-9, 118.3, 60.8)
PR: 99 (5-7)
LYR: 110
Recap: It was an odd move when Jay Norvell took another job in the conference in the same division, but maybe he saw how bad Nevada was going to be this season. The Rams did not score a lot this season, which is never a recipe for success, but strangely were 3-0 when they finished with exactly 17 points. Granted those wins were over fellow list mates New Mexico, Hawaii, and Nevada.
PR: 116 (6-6)
LYR: 121
Recap: I was so close to getting this right, but football is a game of inches and weird bounces and the Red Wolves were no stranger to this concept. Arkansas State lost three games by three points or less and wins in all of those games puts them into a bowl, but the Sun Belt schedule proved to be a nightmare as the Wolves went 1-7.
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