Wednesday, July 12, 2023

And Then There Were Four: Independents Outlook

 For the first time since 2017, only four teams qualify as independents for the upcoming college football season. Notre Dame is almost a de facto member of the ACC but needs that sweet TV money, so it can remain independent. The other three schools consist of UConn, Army, and UMass. Last year there were seven independents, but BYU joined the Big 12, while New Mexico State and Liberty are now members of Conference USA.

Here's a look at the first four of the 133 teams that make up FBS College Football.


Notre Dame

Head Coach: Marcus Freeman (2nd Season, 9-5)

Last Year Record (Pool Rank): 9-4 (26)

Preseason Rank: 19

Prediction: 9-3



My Take: Sam Hartman (pictured) might finally be the quarterback that the Irish have been looking for after grad transferring from Wake Forest. While he was a Demon Deacon, Hartman threw for nearly 13,000 yards and 110 TDs in the air and another 17 rushing. It's a good thing he showed up as Tyler Buchner (Alabama) and Drew Pyne (Arizona State) both left South Bend over the winter. Joe Alt provides All-American-level protection at left tackle as the Irish look to improve their passing offense which ranked 97th last season.

Gerard Parker takes over the reins from Tommy Rees (also at Alabama now) as the Big O while Al Golden will run the defense for second-year coach Marcus Freeman. The defense has a lot of returning starters and hopefully, they'll remember what they did wrong as they allowed teams to score touchdowns on nearly 80 percent of their red zone trips.

The season starts with a cool trip to Dublin, Ireland, where they will play Navy on Aug. 26 (aka Week 0). That should be the start to an easy path to a 4-0 start before the Buckeyes head to South Bend. That's the first of three major hurdles for Notre Dame if they want to make the playoffs. The next one comes three weeks later when USC heads east on Oct. 14. They finally get a tough road test on Nov. 4 when they head to Clemson before Hartman faces his former school. It's tough seeing them clearing two of these hurdles and I don't think they'll be anywhere but a New Year's Day Bowl (note to self, save for potential freezing cold takes).

UConn

Head Coach: Jim Mora (2nd Season, 6-7)

LYR: 6-7 (83)

PR: 89

Prediction: 5-7



MT: Jim Mora performed a miracle by getting the Huskies bowl eligible for the first time since 2015. He'll have a bunch of returning starters on the defense that he calls the plays for, including leading tackler Jackson Mitchell (140 tackles). Also back to lead the offense is running back Victor Rosa, who scampered his way to 636 yards and 11 touchdowns. He'll be joined in the backfield by Jalen Mitchell, who comes over from Louisville. It'll be interesting to see if Ta'Quan Roberson or Zion Turner will be the ones taking the snaps by the halfway point.


Army


Head Coach: Jeff Monken (10th Season, 64-49)

LYR: 6-6 (73)

PR: 82

Prediction: 6-6



MT: I'm not exactly sure who is doing the scheduling at Army, but they really need to get it together. For the second straight season, the Black Knights could be at risk of not making a bowl game despite six wins. Last year Army knocked off Navy to get to six wins, but two of their wins were against Villanova and Colgate, who are both FCS schools. NCAA rules state that if you have two wins against FCS schools, you must reach seven wins or more to become bowl eligible. With Syracuse, LSU, and UTSA on the schedule, it might be hard for Army to find a seventh win. Offensively, it's still about the option attack and they'll use that ball control and a hard-nosed defense to win close games.


UMass

Head Coach: Don Brown (7th Season, 44-30)

LYR: 1-11 (131)

PR: 132

Prediction: 2-10



MT: Don Brown's return to UMass was not what the defensive guru wanted to see. The Minutemen ranked 103rd in defensive scoring (31 PPG) and were an even worse 130th in points scored (12.5). Virtually no one from the offense on the skills side returns which is probably for the best and their potential starting QB, Taisun Phommachnah will likely get a nickname from UMass announcers. It looks like another tough year, but I swear to god if I watch them put up points in Ypsilanti this fall, I'm going to rip my TV off the wall.

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