The Top 50 is a measurement I use to see how strong a conference is and compared to teams that rank in the Bottom 30. It's where you'll find all but one of the conference championship participants and the best of the Group of 5 schools. Before we look at the first 25 of the Top 50 here's a look at the power index (Teams in the Top 50 - Teams in the Bottom 30) for each conference.
AAC: +1
ACC: +3
Big 12: +3
Big Ten: +4
CUSA: -1
Independents: +2
MAC: -1
Mountain West: +3
Pac-12: -1
SEC: +5
Sun Belt: +2
50.
Miami (7-5, 69.6 WP, 51.2 LP)
Last Year Rank: 26
Preseason Rank: 14
Prediction: 10-2
Back when Manny Diaz was looking for a job, he took the head coaching job at Temple, but a few days later, he spurned the Owls and accepted the same job at Miami. Well, after three years both Temple and Miami were looking for new head coaches. That's because the Hurricanes were embarrassed by Alabama and barely beat Appalachian State in their home opener in the opening month. With two weeks left in the season, they were sitting at 5-5 but got wins over Virginia Tech and Duke to end the season. The Hurricanes fired Diaz as soon as they found out they could lure Mario Cristobal away from Oregon; then, they had their season cut short with a COVID outbreak that cost them a chance to play in the Sun Bowl.
49. Boise State (7-5, 50.6 WP, 35 LP)
LYR: 29
PR: 26
Prediction: 10-2
The Broncos were in rough shape after their first five games at 2-3 when they failed to capture those big pre-conference wins they're known for. First, it was a loss to fellow Power 5 killer, UCF, then a one-point loss to Oklahoma State. They scored an upset win over BYU but then were beat by Air Force to get back below .500. Then first-year coach Andy Avalos got some consistency with a four-game win streak that included another big win over Fresno State but was snapped in the final week against San Diego State. The Broncos earned a trip to the Arizona Bowl but were forced to cancel because of COVID concerns. So their opponent and Miami's played each other instead.
48. Nevada (8-5, 97.9 WP, 29.4 LP)
LYR: 19
PR: 21
Prediction: 8-4
Nevada was one of those teams that took liberties with an inconsistent Boise State team to try and jockey up the conference ladder. The Wolfpack jumped out to a 7-2 start that included a win over Cal. With the conference championship within sight, they would have to navigate a final three-game stretch that proved costly. First, they lost a close game with San Diego State before dropping a three-overtime thriller with Air Force. They still earned a trip to the Quick Lane Bowl but would do it without coach Jay Norvell, who took the Colorado State job after the season. Without most of their coaching staff, the interim staff was overmatched by Western Michigan in their home state, as the Broncos romped to a 52-24 victory. Ken Wilson comes over from Oregon to be the new head coach but has decades of experience in Reno as an assistant coach with the Wolfpack.
47: Liberty (8-5, 91.3 WP, 41.8 LP)
LYR: 5
PR: 11
Prediction: 11-1
The Flames certainly had the ability and the quarterback to play like they did in 2021, but their solid schedule proved tougher to navigate than expected. They missed their big moments to stun Syracuse and Ole Miss, lost to bowl-bound Louisiana and Army, but the biggest loss was a 31-28 shocker to Louisiana Monroe. Still, four of their wins came against bowl-eligible teams, and Malik Willis amassed nearly 4,000 yards of offense and was responsible for 40 touchdowns. Five of those touchdowns came in a Lending Tree Bowl dismantling of Eastern Michigan. Willis is expected to be drafted in the earlier rounds this season, although it might be interesting if some teams try to make him a running back or receiver instead.
46. Arizona State (8-5, 91 WP, 44.4 LP)
LYR: 66
PR: 39
Prediction: 7-5
Herm Edwards started the season in hot water because of an NCAA investigation about hosting an event for recruits when he should not have, but the end of their season might still have people grumbling. ASU got off to a 5-1 start and beat USC, so they seemed like they were on the right track, but losses to Utah, Oregon State, and Washington State prevented them from winning a very weak Pac 12. They did stomp on their lowly in-state rival to end the regular season but brought a lackluster effort to the Las Vegas Bowl in a 20-13 loss to Wisconsin.
45.
Georgia State (8-5, 77.1 WP, 38.4 LP)
LYR: 48
PR: 77
Prediction: 5-7
After losing 102-27 to UNC and Army to begin the season, the Panthers decide to be a thorn in anyone else's side that they played. They beat Charlotte and then took a 24-19 lead into the fourth quarter. That lead held until the final moments when a horrible call by the SEC referee's allowed Auburn helped set up a score. A pick-six in the final moments made the final score as bad as it was, but the Panthers were certainly feeling good. They were knocked around by Appalachian State but nearly upset Lousiana before they actually did upset Coastal Carolina. They earned a Christmas Day spot in the Camelia Bowl and blasted Ball State 52-10 to end the year on a high note.
44. Kansas State (8-5, 74 WP, 42.8 LP)
LYR: 78
PR: 59
Prediction: 6-6
As Chris Klieman watched his former employer, North Dakota State, win yet another FCS title, he and his Wildcats posted another slightly above average effort in the Big 12. Kansas State beat everyone they should have but watched as they were close, but just out of reach against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas, and Iowa State. They earned a spot in the Texas Bowl, the last of the bowl season before the National Championship, and took their frustrations out on LSU on a Tuesday night. It was never close as the Wildcats scored early and often en route to a 42-20 win over the Bayou Bengals.
43. Western Michigan (8-5, 71.6 WP, 77.6 LP)
LYR: 34
PR: 72
Prediction: 4-8
I'm not sure why I lacked so much confidence in this Broncos squad, but they had one of the early upsets of the year when they outscored Kenny Pickett and the Pitt Panthers 44-41. They were scoring points and sitting at 5-2, but in true MAC strangeness, Western had no issue against an ACC opponent but lost four straight against MAC West opponents, including losses to Eastern and Central. Their lone win against the West was the conference champs, Northern Illinois, so go figure. They had a short trip from Kalamazoo to Detroit for their bowl game and throttled Nevada to win the Quick Lane Bowl.
42. Western Kentucky (9-5, 86.9 WP, 29.8 LP)
LYR: 77
PR: 95
Prediction: 7-5
Speaking of scoring points, no one did it better than the Hilltoppers. They never finished with less than 31 points and those games were losses to Michigan State and Indiana. They needed to score because as many points as they had, they gave up significantly more and began the season 1-4. Once the defense figured it out, they were unstoppable, winning seven straight and earning a trip to the Conference USA Championship with the hopes of avenging a loss to UTSA earlier in the year. Like their first meeting, the scoreboard was on fire, and when the smoke cleared, the Roadrunners won 49-41. They got a great matchup in the Boca Raton Bowl with Appalachian State to highlight two of the best in the Group of 5. It was all Hilltoppers though as Bailey Zappe threw for 422 yards and six touchdowns to give the Mountaineers their first bowl loss ever, a 59-38 throttling. Zappe had a record-breaking season as he became the first player to throw for 5,900 yards in FBS history. He also broke Joe Burrow's 60 touchdown mark, with 63 TD passes in 2021.
41. Northern Illinois (9-5, 80.9 WP, 51.2 LP)
LYR: 124
PR: 125
Prediction: 4-8
The Huskies had one of the biggest turnarounds from last season after winning 0 games in 2020. They needed just one game, on the road, against a Power 5 as they edged Georiga Tech 22-21. They would play in plenty of close contests but nearly navigated the MAC unscathed before losing in the final week to Western Michigan. They rebounded and defeated Kent State in the MAC Championship to earn a trip to the Cure Bowl against Coastal Carolina. It was a down-to-the-wire affair, but the Huskies ran out of time after a costly blunder by the referee, who said the clock should run, even though the runner was out of bounds. Instead of potentially tying and winning the game, they lost 47-41.
40.
SMU (8-4, 86.9 WP, 29.8 LP)
LYR: 32
PR: 35
Prediction: 8-4
The Sonny Dykes era ended with a thud as the Mustangs began the year 7-0, only to lose four of their final five. Dykes left after the regular season to take the job at TCU and the Mustangs had the Fenway Bowl canceled against Virginia. Rhett Lashlee returns to SMU after a two-year stint as the Offensive Coordinator at Miami (FL). Lashlee had served in the same position for the Mustangs in 2018 & 2019.
39. UCLA (8-4, 81.4 WP, 40.8 LP)
LYR: 76
PR: 58
Prediction: 6-6
The Bruins got a statement win under Chip Kelly when they knocked off LSU and it looked like things were going to go smoothly in L.A. However, they followed that win with a loss to Fresno State and then Arizona State two weeks later. UCLA did finish the year with three straight wins, but concerns about COVID caused them to pull out of the Holiday Bowl.
38. Texas A&M (8-4, 58.8 WP, 41.8 LP)
LYR: 7
PR: 2
Prediction: 11-1
I'm not sure what I was thinking when I said 11-1, but there was cause for concern in Week 2 when they had to escape Colorado 10-7. The Aggies were one of the first teams to learn that Arkansas was going to be good in 2021, then they lost a close one against Mississippi State. They seemed to redeem themselves when they handed Alabama their lone loss of the season, but Ole Miss and LSU made it two losses in their final three games. The Aggies were forced to pull out of the Gator Bowl due to COVID and were replaced by Rutgers...oof!
37. UCF (9-4, 90.8 WP, 61.3 LP)
LYR: 49
PR: 36
Prediction: 8-4
The Gus Malzahn era got off to a rocky start when they began the season 3-3, but won six of their final seven games. Then came a stellar bowl matchup with Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl. The Knights took care of business to upend their Power 5 instate foes 29-17.
36. Army (9-4, 87.1 WP, 78.5 LP)
LYR: 22
PR: 56
Prediction: 7-5
The Black Knights did their thing, ran the ball a lot, and beat some good teams. Army went 5-3 against bowl-bound teams, but none of that matters because they failed to beat Navy. The Midship sunk Army's chances of winning the Commander's-in-Chiefs Trophy. They would walk away with Armed Forces Bowl trophy after a game-winning field goal handed them a 24-22 victory over Missouri.
35.
UAB (9-4, 82.8 WP, 38.5 LP)
LYR: 37
PR: 60
Prediction: 6-6
Since bringing football back in 2017, the Blazers have posted a winning season every year. This year was no exception as they navigated Conference USA to become bowl eligible, but had a tough draw in No. 12 BYU. That did not faze UAB in the slightest as they held on to win the Independence Bowl, 34-31.
34. Purdue (9-4, 80.4 WP, 39.8 LP)
LYR: 98
PR: 81
Prediction: 5-7
The Boilermakers were giant killers in 2021. Purdue got two top-five wins against Iowa and Michigan State and earned a trip to the Music City Bowl. There were points aplenty, and some help from the men in zebra stripes gave them a 48-45 win in overtime against Tennessee.
33. Central Michigan (9-4, 80.2 WP, 71.8 LP)
LYR: 68
PR: 88
Prediction: 7-5
It took a minute for the Chippewa's to get going, but they finished the year on a roll, winning six of their last seven games, and the Michigan MAC Trophy. They looked like their season would be cut short when Boise State backed out of the Arizona Bowl, but they took Miami's spot in the Sun Bowl to play Washington State. The Chips pitched a shutout in the first half and held on 24-21 to upend a Power 5 school in a bowl game.
32. Minnesota (9-4, 74.1 WP, 59 LP)
LYR: 75
PR: 53
Prediction: 7-5
The Golden Gophers had a strange year that saw them lose to Bowling Green and Illinois but finish off Wisconsin to reclaim Paul Bunyan's Ax. Though a boring affair, they defeated West Virginia, 18-6, in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. P.J. Fleck should be in the Twin Cities for some time after signing a seven-year contract extension.
31. Wisconsin (9-4, 66 WP, 24.8 LP)
LYR: 52
PR: 28
Prediction: 10-2
With the exception of the Iowa game, Wisconsin lost every big game they played in. They lost their opener to Penn State, got throttled by Michigan, and had their chance to go to the Big Ten Title game blown up by Minnesota. After all that heartbreak, they still went on to win their bowl game, a 20-13 victory over Arizona State in the Las Vegas Bowl.
30.
Arkansas (9-4, 64.4 WP, 23.5 LP)
LYR: 100
PR: 84
Prediction: 4-8
Arkansas was one of the surprises of the 2021 season. Wins over Texas A&M, Texas, LSU, and Mississippi State helped them rise towards the top of the SEC. Led by a middle linebacker named Bumper Pool, this Pool Poll endorsed squad knocked around Penn State in the Outback Bowl. It was the first time since 2016 that the Hogs finished with a winning record and the first time they amassed at least nine wins since 2011.
29. Appalachian State (10-4, 85.3 WP, 36.3 LP)
LYR: 21
PR: 37
Prediction: 9-3
It's hard to believe, but Appalachian State picked up their first win over a Top 25 team since they went to Michigan and stunned the Wolverines. Their latest win was a thriller that handed Coastal Carolina their first loss of the year. One team the Mountaineers did not have an answer for was Louisiana as the Ragin' Cajuns won the regular-season matchup and the Sun Belt Championship over App State. An even harder puzzle to solve was Bailey Zappe and the Western Kentucky offense, as the Hilltoppers dropped 59 points on the men of Boone, North Carolina in the Boca Raton Bowl.
28. Oregon (10-4, 77.5 WP, 34 LP)
LYR: 51
PR: 25
Prediction: 10-2
The Ducks threw a heavyweight punch when they went to Columbus and stunned the Buckeyes. They seemed poised to win the PAC-12 easily, but Stanford stunned Oregon in overtime and they were blown out by Utah. They had a chance to get a rematch with the Utes in the Pac-12 Championship and got beat down again. Things got worse when Mario Cristobal left for Miami and then they were throttled by Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl. Dan Lanning heads north from running the Georgia defense to be the new head coach of the Ducks in 2022.
27. Utah (10-4, 71 WP, 22.3 LP)
LYR: 45
PR: 40
Prediction: 8-4
The Utes started the season 1-2 after surprise losses to BYU and San Diego State but won 10 of their next 11 games, including a win over Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship. They were set to win a magical Rose Bowl over Ohio State, but a depleted secondary could only contain CJ Stroud for so long. The Utes blew a 35-21 lead after the half and lost 48-45 to the Buckeyes.
26. Iowa (10-4, 58.9 WP, 35.8 LP)
LYR: 23
PR: 16
Prediction: 8-4
Since 1998 the Hawkeyes have been led by Kirk Ferentz and the results have been predictably the same. They had a Top 5 win over Penn State and were in control of their own destiny. So, they immediately lost their next two games in a horribly embarrassing fashion. They did win their next four games to make it to the Big Ten Championship where they were completely dismantled by Michigan. Their appearance in the Citrus Bowl was played in Ferentz's typical playing not to lose mode, which is exactly what they ended up doing as their lack of aggression gave Kentucky a chance to take home a 20-17 win.
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