The end of the college football season is finally here and unless you like Georgia or Alabama, you probably weren't too excited about Monday night's affair. There were some bright spots aside from the SEC. Michigan had a banner year and won their first Big Ten Championship Game. Cincinnati became the first Group of 5 team to make the College Football Playoffs. Perhaps nothing was more shocking than UTSA being undefeated going into the final week of the regular season and ultimately finishing 12-2. Another surprise was the Mountain West that had four teams finishing in the Top 25 (of this poll anyways), essentially filling in for the PAC-12 as the West Coast's elite conference. Here's a full breakdown of those who finished with three losses or fewer.
25.
NCST (9-3, 78.8 WP, 43.3 LP)
Last Year Rank: 35
Preseason Rank: 32
Prediction: 8-4
The Wolfpack seemed destined to win the ACC after the beat Clemson in a double overtime thriller, but then they lost two very close games to Miami and eventual ACC Championship Game participant, Wake Forest. NCST did take care of UNC to end the season, but had their appearance in the Holiday Bowl canceled because of a COVID issue with UCLA. Head coach Dave Doeren was so mad about the late cancelation that he said NCAA stands for, "No Clue At All!"
24. BYU (10-3, 78.2 WP, 48 LP)
LYR: 3
PR: 29
Prediction: 8-4
The Cougars got big wins Utah, USC, Washington State, Arizona State, and then dropped 66 on their former coach and Virginia. In the middle of the season, BYU hit a minor rut with back-to-back losses to Boise State and Baylor. They made the Indpendence Bowl and were stunned by UAB, who went on to upset the Cougars 34-31.
23. Air Force (10-3, 78.2 WP, 34.7 LP)
LYR: 63
PR: 82
Prediction: 8-4
The Air Force defense helped support a strong rushing attack by the Falcons that had them a win away from appearing in the Mountain West Championship. Instead, they settled for an appearance in the First Responder Bowl and held off a late comeback by Louisville to win 31-28.
22. Kentucky (10-3, 76.8 WP, 44.3 LP)
LYR: 70
PR: 57
Prediction: 7-5
Mark Stoops was linked to a handful of different jobs, but he didn't let that prevent his team from taking care of business in a difficult SEC. The Wildcats picked up wins over LSU and Florida and annihilated Louisville for the Governor's Cup. They earned a trip to the Citrus Bowl and clawed their way back in the fourth quarter to upend the Iowa Hawkeyes.
21. Clemson (10-3, 74.1 WP, 34.3 LP)
LYR: 12
PR: 3
Prediction: 11-1
In hindsight, losing to Georgia by 3 is a much better look for Clemson than most other teams that faced the Bulldogs, but that set the tone for season that Clemson's offense was in trouble. It came up two weeks later when they only scored 14 against Georgia Tech. They still had a chance to win their half of the ACC despite losses to Pitt and NCST because they throttled Wake Forest. However, they settled for a listless appearance in the Cheez-It bowl were the defense did most of the heavy lifting in a 20-13 win over Iowa State.
20.
Fresno State (10-3, 71.3 WP, 61 LP)
LYR: 67
PR: 63
Prediction: 6-6
The Bulldogs had a tough schedule, but they looked like they could handle it by challenging Oregon in Week 2. That helped them stun UCLA two weeks later, but then a trip to islands saw their bid for a Mountain West crown derailed. The Bulldogs met up with the surprise UTEP in the New Mexico Bowl and were able to fend off the Miners, 31-24. Head coach Kalen DeBoer left for Washington and Fresno State brought back Jeff Tedford who had previously been the head coach before having to retire due to health issues.
19. Ole Miss (10-3, 61.8 WP, 16.7 LP)
LYR: 64
PR: 42
Prediction: 8-4
Lane Kiffin's second season went pretty well with the exception of any game against SEC teams from the state of Alabama. The Rebels did well enough to earn a trip to the Sugar Bowl to take on the Baylor Bears. Unlike Kenny Pickett and a slew of other top draft picks, quarterback Matt Corral decided to play in his bowl game. Unfortunately, he proved why it might be best to skip as he had to be carted off the field in the first half with a leg injury. That took the wind out of the sails of the Rebels and they lost 21-7.
18. Utah State (11-3, 83.7 WP, 55.7 LP)
LYR: 115
PR: 118
Prediction: 4-8
The Aggies came out with a big win against Washington State and picked up a few big wins along the way. They did so well that they made an appearance in the Mountain West Championship where they dismantled San Diego State 46-13. They capped an amazing turnaround from the 2020 season with a 24-13 win over Oregon State in the L.A. Bowl.
17. Wake Forest (11-3, 77.9 WP, 40.3 LP)
LYR: 74
PR: 61
Prediction: 6-6
Perhaps the biggest surprise appearance in any conference championship was that of Wake Forest. Long dominated by Clemson, the Demon Deacons took advantage of the Tigers' shortcomings in 2021 thanks to strong quarterback play from Sam Hartman. The offense scored points in droves, only being held to less than 35 points twice, both losses. They had an interesting matchup with Texas A&M in the Gator Bowl, but after a COVID outbreak in College Station, Rutgers replaced A&M. With a much easier opponent, the Deacons handled their new task easily, 38-10.
16. Pitt (11-3, 71 WP, 65.7 LP)
LYR: 55
PR: 51
Prediction: 6-6
The Demon Deacons were thwarted from winning the ACC Championship by Kenny Pickett and the Pitt Panthers. Pickett had such a strong 2021 that he earned a trip to the Heisman Trophy ceremony. He opted out of the Peach Bowl which seriously hurt Pitt's chances and they lost 31-21 to Michigan State.
15.
Coastal Carolina (11-2, 92.6 WP, 67 LP)
LYR: 2
PR: 9
Prediction: 10-2
The Chanticleers were back in the Top 25 until a stunning finish by Appalachian State blemished their perfect record. An injury to quarterback Grayson McCall limited their abilities against Georgia State and they were stunned once again. Those losses prevented them from appearing in the Sun Belt Championship and they settled for a thrilling matchup with MAC Champs, Northern Illinois. The Huskies had a chance to win late, but a little help from the refs, plus a defensive stand gave the Chanticleers a 47-41 victory.
14. Notre Dame (11-2, 70.4 WP, 14 LP)
LYR: 14
PR: 8
Prediction: 10-2
The Fighting Irish's CFP chances were greatly hurt when the ACC and Pac-12 were drastically down in 2021. Their toughest task came at home against Cincinnati, which the Bearcats won 24-13. While they could hang their hat on the Wisconsin win, but after they failed to make the Big Ten title game, it once again hurt their chances. On the outside looking in, the Irish were left with a trip to the Fiesta Bowl against Oklahoma State. In between the game, the head coach Brian Kelly was hired by LSU and defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman was promoted to head coach. His debut started off with a 28-14 halftime lead, only for the Irish to allow 17 unanswered in the third quarter en route to a 37-35 loss.
13. Michigan State (11-2, 60.5 WP, 29 LP)
LYR: 104
PR: 96
Prediction: 4-8
The Spartans were the talk of the town after they rallied to knock off Michigan in a battle of the unbeaten to go 8-0. Then they ran into the Purdue and were completely dismantled by Ohio State, dashing their shot at a Big Ten title. Kenneth Walker III and his 1,600 yards rushing opted out of the Peach Bowl, but the Spartan defense was enough to overwhelm Pitt's backup quarterbacks, 31-21.
12. Ohio State (11-2, 59.9 WP, 12 LP)
LYR: 9
PR: 4
Prediction: 12-0
The Buckeyes were loaded offensively and it looked like they couldn't be stopped, then they actually played. The first three weeks were rough as they had to put Minnesota away late, lost to Oregon, and then let Tulsa hang around longer than they should have. Finally, it clicked and the Buckeyes posted four-straight games in which they scored at least 52 points. There win streak was finally halted by Jim Harbaugh's first win against the Buckeyes in six tries. OSU was shutout of the Big Ten Championship and the CFP, but got a nice consolation prize in the Rose Bowl against Utah. It looked grim when the Utes couldn't be stopped in the first half, but CJ Stroud and Jaxon Smith-Njigba hooked up for 347 yards and three touchdowns, while Stroud threw another three touchdowns to Marvin Harrison Jr. to complete a 48-45 comeback.
11. Oklahoma (11-2, 58.3 WP, 15.5 LP)
LYR: 15
PR: 6
Prediction: 11-1
Like Ohio State, the Sooners seemed destined to coast into the CFP, but they nearly lost their home opener to Tulane, and had close calls with Nebraska, West Virginia, and Texas. The Texas game saw the Sooners rally after benching Heisman candidate Specner Rattler (he is now playing for South Carolina). At 9-0, the Sooners were still in control, but lost two of their last three to Baylor and Oklahoma State. That left them out of the Big 12 Championship and they settled for a disappointment bowl with Oregon. Like the Ducks, the Sooners were without their head coach as Lincoln Riley left to take the job at USC. Bob Stoops came back and led the troops to a convincing 47-32 Alamo Bowl victory.
10.
Houston (12-2, 93.9 WP, 40 LP)
LYR: 84
PR: 89
Prediction: 8-4
Houston dropped their opener to Texas Tech, but went on to rattle off 11-straight victories to earn their way into the Top 25 and a spot in AAC Championship game. The Cougars weren't able to knock off Cincinnati, but they'd get a chance to beat a Power 5 team when they squared off against Auburn in the Birmingham Bowl. While Houston was best known for its offense, the defense was able to limit the Tigers and the Cougars won a close one, 17-13.
9. UTSA (12-2, 83.6 WP, 54.5 LP)
LYR: 50
PR: 47
Prediction: 8-4
The Roadrunners have been greatly improved under Jeff Traylor. In the last two seasons, they have won 19 games, compared to the 13 they won the previous three seasons. UTSA got noticed in Week 1 with an impressive win over Illinois, then a few weeks later, they knocked off Memphis. They beat WKU in a shootout and after a couple close calls, they entered the final week undefeated. Then shockingly, they were blasted by North Texas as the Mean Green won 45-23 to ruin the perfect season. The Roadrunners shook it off and defeated the Hilltoppers again to claim the CUSA Championship. They earned a trip to the Frisco Bowl against Mountain West runner-up San Diego State. The Aztecs proved too much, but UTSA still finished with the most win in school history.
8. San Diego State (12-2, 74.5 WP, 27.5 LP)
LYR: 65
PR: 69
Prediction: 7-5
Speaking of the Aztecs, they finished 2-0 against Pac-12 schools, including a win over Utah. At 7-0, they could not navigate the difficult Mountain West unscathed, losing to Fresno State, but they would still make the conference championship. They were hit early and often as Utah State crushed the Aztecs 46-13.
7. Oklahoma State (12-2, 64.8 WP, 33.5 LP)
LYR: 27
PR: 18
Prediction: 9-3
The Cowboys were playing with fire throughout the season and were finally burned when they lost to Iowa State. Still, they managed victories over Texas, Oklahoma, and Baylor and earned a rematch with the Bears in the Big 12 Championship. OKST and Baylor were locked in a defensive struggle with the Bears ultimately coming away with a 21-16 win. The Cowboys settled for a spot in the Fiesta Bowl were they used a strong third quarter to stun Notre Dame.
6. Michigan (12-2, 64.7 WP, 3.5 LP)
LYR: 95
PR: 64
Prediction: 7-5
It finally happened! Jim Harbaugh was able to check three things off his checklist for the first time in his seven years in Ann Arbor. First, the Wolverines finally defeated Ohio State for the first time since 2011. That win earned them a spot in the Big Ten Championship, the first since the inception of the game, where they crushed Iowa. That marked the first Big Ten title since 1997 for the maize and blue. With all their impressive wins throughout the season, they were rewarded with a trip to the CFP for the first time ever. That's where the dream season ended as the eventual champs, Georgia, crushed their dreams early en route to a 34-11 Orange Bowl defeat.
5.
Baylor (12-2, 56.7 WP, 54.5 LP)
LYR: 111
PR: 86
Prediction: 4-8
The Bears had the biggest jump from last season as they rose 106 spots from their 2020 finish in the Pool Poll. Baylor survived losses to Oklahoma State and TCU to make it to the Big 12 Championship game where they avenged their loss to the Cowboys. The Bears took on Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl and held the high powered Rebels to just 7 points.
4. Alabama (13-2, 54 WP, 24.5 LP)
LYR: 1
PR: 1
Prediction: 12-0
It was clear that Alabama was not as dominant as they have been in the past, but that didn't mean they were pushovers. A loss to Texas A&M couldn't prevent them from going to another SEC title game and were faced with the seemingly unstoppable Georgia Bulldogs. Like they had in the past, the Crimson Tide destroyed the psyche of Georgia fans and cruised to a 41-24 win. Quarterback Bryce Young went on to win the Heisman and afterwards led the Tide to a Cotton Bowl victory over Cincinnati in the CFP. That set up a rematch with Georgia for the National Championship and it was a 180 for the Tide. They struggled to score and Young threw a game-sealing pick-six to give the Bulldogs a 33-18 win.
3. Cincinnati (13-1, 71.3 WP, 5 LP)
LYR: 6
PR: 5
Prediction: 11-1
The Bearcats finally proved that a Group of 5 team could make the CFP. Their only wins over ranked opponents came against Notre Dame and Houston in the AAC Championship game, but it was enough to make it in. They were respectable in the first half against the Crimson Tide, but their offense wasn't good enough to move the ball against an SEC defense. The Bearcats might have lost, but they won because they were able to keep Luke Fickell from searching for greener pastures. It might help that they'll be joining Big 12 in the next couple years.
2. Louisiana (13-1, 68.2 WP, 30 LP)
LYR: 4
PR: 15
Prediction: 9-3
This is where the Pool Poll works it's magic. The Ragin' Cajuns at number 2? Well after they lost to Texas in Week 1, they never lost again. Louisiana currently holds the longest active win streak in the FBS at 13. They won the Sun Belt Championship and took care of business in the R+L Carriers Bowl against Marshall. They accomplished the last item without head coach Billy Napier, who left to take the job at Florida. The Cajuns went internal and promoted Michael Desormeaux to lead them in 2022.
1.
Georgia (14-1, 49.3 WP, 3 LP)
LYR: 16
PR: 7
Prediction: 10-2
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