Conference Outlooks: Bearcats Face Tough Challengers in the American

 The Cincinnati Bearcats became the first Group of 5 schools to storm the party that is the College Football Playoffs. Haters will say they didn't deserve to be there, but outside of Ohio State, no other school would have done better against Alabama. Houston, SMU, UCF, and potentially Memphis could all make things harder for the Bearcats to repeat in 2022. This will also be the final year for this year's top 3 schools in the conference. The conference changes from 11 members in 2022 to 14 in 2023 despite the loss of those three schools. Here's a look at the realignment set for next year.

IN: UTSA, UAB, Rice, North Texas, Florida Atlantic, and Charlotte

OUT: Cincinnati, Houston, UCF

Here's a look at the conference that is balanced with top-tier squads, but also features some real duds.

Cincinnati:

Head Coach: Luke Fickell (6th Season, 48-15)

Last Year Rank: 3 (13-1)

Preseason Rank: 8

Prediction: 9-3

The Bearcats lost an unimaginable 9 starters to the NFL Draft this past offseason and it could've been 10 if tight end Josh Whyle would've declared. The big question will be, who is going to get him the ball? Evan Prater is a top recruit and watched Desmond Ridder play last season, but Ben Bryant is back in the Queen City after spending last season at Eastern Michigan. Perhaps an even bigger question is how will the secondary recover after losing Coby Bryant and Sauce Gardner? Luke Fickell has done a great job at recruiting, especially in the state of Ohio, and the rich talent from the city itself. It might take a slight drop this season, but they'll be ready to hang with the Big 12 in 2023.

Houston:

Head Coach: Dana Holgorsen (5th Season, 19-15)

LYR: 10 (12-2)

PR: 15

Prediction: 10-2

While the Bearcats had a great season last year, the Cougars were also getting it done. After a Week 1 loss to Texas Tech, their only other loss came against Cincinnati in the American Championship. This year might tip the other way as the Cougars return more starters, including quarterback Clayton Tune, and two members of 'Sack Avenue', Derek Parish and Donovan Mutin. The beginning of Holgorsen's tenure in Houston was tumultuous, but he's got them where he wants them and they'll also be good to go when they transition to the Big 12.

UCF

Head Coach: Gus Malzahn (2nd Season, 9-4

LYR: 37 (9-4)

PR: 39

Prediction: 9-3

Another squad returning plenty of starters to challenge UC, the Golden Knights have plenty of offensive firepower to score and the defense isn't too shabby either. Johnny Richardson and Isaiah Bowser provide a one-two punch in the backfield and provide Mike Keene plenty of support. The balanced attack should give him plenty of time to find his favorite target in Ryan O'Keefe. It'll be interesting to see which of these three can keep up their success in the Big 12.

SMU:

Head Coach: Rhett Lashlee (1st Season)

LYR: 40 (8-4)

PR: 40

Prediction: 9-3

SMU is a wild card in the American as Rhett Lashlee takes over a successful program from Sonny Dykes. The Mustangs have Tanner Mordecai back behind center and he'll look to lead some upsets at home against Houston, Cincinnati, and TCU. If they'd like to do that, they'll need to find a more balanced attack and not just rely on the arm of Mordecai.

East Carolina:

Head Coach: Mike Houston (4th Season, 14-19)

LYR: 51 (7-5)

PR: 63

Prediction: 6-6

It seems like Holton Ahlers has been at ECU for 10 years, but this is his senior year and he'll look to make the Pirates a nuisance in this crowded AAC. Midway through the season, they face a nightmare stretch that begins with hosting Memphis and UCF, then travel to BYU and Cincinnati, before returning home for Houston.

Memphis:

Head Coach: Ryan Silverfield (3rd Season, 14-10)

LYR: 69 (6-6)

PR: 74

Prediction: 8-4

The Tigers bring back offensive weapons galore for quarterback Seth Henigan. His favorite targets James Ivory and Eddie Lewis are joined by Rodrigues Clark in the backfield. Jeyvon Ducker transferred from Northern Illinois where he ran for over 1,100 yards and should provide great relief for Clark.

Tulsa:

Head Coach: Phillip Montgomery (8th Season, 38-46)

LYR: 60 (7-6)

PR: 95

Prediction: 5-7

The Golden Hurricane salvaged last season by winning four straight including their bowl game to finish with a winning record. The offense brings back a handful of starters including quarterback Davis Brin, but the defense will have a lot of fresh faces in the starting lineup.

Tulane:

Head Coach: Willie Fritz (7th Season, 31-43)

LYR: 124 (2-10)

PR: 111

Prediction: 4-8

The Green Wave were abysmal last season despite giving Oklahoma a run for their money in Week 1. Tulane lacked consistency and another poor showing could spell the end for Fritz in New Orleans. Michael Pratt will be back under center and has most of his line returning to protect him in 2022.

Navy:

Head Coach: Ken Niumatalolo (15th Season, 105-75)

LYR: 98 (4-8)

PR: 112

Prediction: 2-10

Ken Niumatalolo is one of the longest-tenured coaches in the country and he returns starting quarterback Tai Lavatai to lead the offense. There are not many returning starters though and the depth of the conference might be too much for the Midshipmen to overcome. They'll make a trip to Baltimore in November when they host the Fighting Irish.

South Florida:

Head Coach: Jeff Scott (3rd Season, 3-18)

LYR: 119 (2-10)

PR: 114

Prediction: 3-9

The Bulls have lots of depth to work with for Jeff Scott, but until the Big 3 leave, it will probably be another tough year in Tampa. Xavier Weaver and Jaren Mangham should be the top playmakers for USF.

Temple:

Head Coach: Stan Drayton (1st Season)

LYR: 109 (3-9)

PR: 117

Prediction: 3-9

Can Stan Drayton find success in a Temple program that's trending downward? Quarterback D'Wan Mathis will try and help him resurrect the Owls, but it will be tough sledding in 2022.