One of the few changes that occur this season regarding realignment is in the Sun Belt Conference. They've bumped up James Madison from the FCS and brought in three Conference USA schools: Old Dominion, Marshall, and Southern Miss. This brings the conference total up to 14 overall and that number could jump if Conference USA finds it challenging to keep up and schools just outright leave the conference in the next 5-10 years. The Sun Belt has been one of the better Group of 5 conferences as of late, but the additions of some questionable members outside of Marshall temporarily bring them down a notch.
The top is represented by three schools in the Top 50 (Appalachian State, Louisiana, and Coastal Carolina), but has 8 schools ranking in the 100s to begin the season for a power conference index of -5. Here's a look at the two branches of the Sun Belt.
West:
Louisiana:
Head Coach: Michael Desormeaux (1st Season, won bowl game)
Last Year Rank: 2 (13-1)
Preseason Rank: 29
Prediction: 10-2
Billy Napier is off to Florida and the Desormeaux era begins in Lafayette. He'll have to find a new quarterback to replace Levi Lewis who led the Ragin' Cajuns to their best finish as only Georgia had a better record in 2021. There are some skill players returning to support the new QB and then the defense has a chunk returning. The schedule is pretty favorable as they'll miss both Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State, but do have a second to last week's visit to Tallahassee.
Troy:
Head Coach: Jon Sumrall (1st Season)
LYR: 92 (5-7)
PR: 92
Prediction: 6-6
Chip Lindsey is out and the Jon Sumrall era begins in Troy. He'll get a lot of starters returning to try and make some noise in the West, but the schedule is unkind with trips to Ole Miss, Louisiana, and App State.
South Alabama:
Head Coach: Kane Wommack (2nd Season, 5-7)
LYR: 95 (5-7)
PR: 104
Prediction: 3-9
The Jaguars lose Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year Jalen Tolbert but bring in D.J. Thomas as a transfer from Ole Miss. There's a lot of talent returning on both sides of the ball, but the quarterback situation is still unsolved. It's going to be difficult to make noise without a QB, but at least the view is nice in Mobile.
Arkansas State:
Head Coach: Butch Jones (2nd Season, 2-10)
LYR: 121 (2-10)
PR: 116
Prediction: 6-6
The first year for Butch Jones in Jonesboro was a bit rough, but he'll have more time to work with James Blackman (formerly a starter at Florida State) and work through some kinks in the offense. The defense does not return many starters, but it is stacked with upper-classmen. An easier schedule helps get them near bowl eligibility, but they'll likely get throttled in Columbus, Lafayette, and Memphis.
Southern Miss:
LYR: 117 (3-9)
PR: 119
Prediction: 5-7
The Golden Eagles were such a mess last season that they had no quarterback that could function near the end of the season. Their solution was an interesting one as they decided to just direct snap to playmaker Frank Gore Jr. He ran for over 800 yards, added another 150 in receiving, and even threw a few touchdowns. Ty Keyes will get the nod to start the season, but Gore will be waiting for his chance to make a play.
Louisiana-Monroe
Head Coach: Terry Bowden (2nd Season, 4-8)
LYR: 97 (4-8)
PR: 122
Prediction: 3-9
The Warhawks may be without a starting quarterback, but they do have a receiver named Boogie Knight and you can hear all about it when they are getting mopped up Texas and Alabama.
Texas State:
LYR: 97 (4-8)
PR: 123
Prediction: 2-10
The seat is getting hot in San Marcos for Spavital who hasn't shown much in the three seasons so far. Calvin Hill will be the workhorse for the Bobcats as he ran for over 700 yards. Marcell Barbee, who I enjoyed watching during the pandemic season when Texas State was the only thing on, will be in his final year and looks to make a splash with his flashy catches.
East:
Appalachian State
LYR: 29 (10-4)
PR: 32
Prediction: 9-3
That 11th win was an elusive one as the Mountaineers lost a close Sun Belt Championship, but were no match for the pass-happy Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky in the Boca Raton Bowl to finish the season with back-to-back losses. Luckily, a lot of key pieces return and nobody snatched their head coach in the offseason, so the Mountaineers could return to glory. They've been the Chanticleers' kryptonite, winning four of their first five meetings. Chase Brice has found a home after bouncing from Clemson to Duke before landing in Boone.
Coastal Carolina:
LYR: 15 (11-2)
PR: 34
Prediction: 10-2
Is this the year Coastal Carolina can finally dethrone the Mountaineers for the East title? It's been three straight seasons of watching App State face off against Louisiana for the Sun Belt crown, but if Grayson McCall can stay healthy they have a chance. He'll have to do more lifting than in the past as the offense and defense are light on returning starters.
Marshall:
LYR: 66 (7-6)
PR: 63
Prediction: 8-4
Rasheen Ali is a name that Sun Belt fans are going to get to know as the running back amassed over 1,800 yards from scrimmage as a Freshman in 2021. The Thundering Herd, like Southern Miss and Old Dominion, forced the issue to join the Sun Belt this season and could be a pain in the neck for some. They'll get a chance to shine on national TV in week two when they head to Notre Dame.
Georgia State
LYR: 45 (8-5)
PR: 79
Prediction: 7-5
The Panthers got off to a slow start at 1-4 but showed great potential when they nearly upset Auburn. After getting throttled by App State, the Panthers won 7 of their final 8, including an upset of Coastal Carolina on the road. Darren Grainger is a playmaker at quarterback and the offense and defense are comprised of upper-classmen from a team that played well.
Old Dominion
LYR: 84 (6-7)
PR: 102
Prediction: 4-8
The Monarchs will transition to the Sun Belt after notching a bowl appearance in 2021. Old Dominion didn't miss a beat after not playing in 2020, but they've got a lack of returning skills players, especially to catch the ball. A much tougher schedule will make it difficult for a second straight bowl appearance.
James Madison
LYR: Played in FCS
PR: 113
Prediction: 4-7
The Dukes are making the transition to the FBS level, 6 years after winning their National Championship. James Madison has been a powerhouse in that time with the Dukes only losing five games in the last three seasons. There are a lot of changes on offense, but one question remains, can Colorado State transfer Todd Centeio can be the guy who throws the ball to Kris Thronton down the field? One odd note is that the Dukes play just 11 games and will not be eligible to win the Sun Belt or appear in a bowl game this season.
Georgia Southern
Head Coach: Clay Helton (1st Season)
LYR: 116 (3-9)
PR: 125
Prediction: 3-9
Clay Helton had a tumultuous ride at USC but will be reinventing the wheel at Georgia Southern as the Eagles will move on from their traditional option attack to something more modern and balanced. It will be interesting to see if he has the personnel to do it in year one, but likely this will be a rough transition for the Eagles. Kyle Vantrease transfers in from Buffalo to give them a better fit at QB.
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