Sunday, October 16, 2022

Looking Back at the Wild First Half of the College Football Season

(Tennessee fans celebrate after defeating Alabama for the first time in 16 seasons.)



This past weekend marked the halfway point for many of the teams in college football, with teams playing anywhere from 6 to 8 games so far. After Colorado's win over Cal, all 131 teams in the FBS have at least one victory and nine teams are currently unblemished to begin the season. Some of those are unsurprising (Ohio State, Georgia, Michigan, and Clemson) while others continue to shock (Tennessee, Ole Miss, TCU, Syracuse, and UCLA). Kansas and James Madison appeared in the Top 25 simultaneously, which is just one of the many great storylines so far. This week it's Tulane's turn to be highlighted as they are one of 16 teams with just one loss this season.

The Green Wave are also one of 16 teams that have already become bowl eligible, which is something to say because currently 71 of the 131 teams sit at .500 or below. Five coaches have been fired (Arizona St, Colorado, Georgia Tech, Nebraska, and Wisconsin), and another resigned before the season started (Bill Clark-UAB). It couldn't be going any worse for Marcus Freeman (Notre Dame), Mario Cristobal (Miami), and Brent Venables (Oklahoma) in their first season as head coach. Meanwhile, Mike Elko (Duke), Sonny Dykes (TCU), and Lincon Riley (USC) have all found great success in the early going in their first go-around on campus.

The Top 25 in this week's Pool's Poll is as balanced as ever, but don't look for appearances from Conference USA, the MAC, or the Mountain West, as all three conferences have been cannibalizing any standouts from the group. However, UAB, Toledo, and Air Force are trying their best respectively. Here's a brief look at each conference and their Power Index score (or teams that rank in the Top 50 - teams appearing in the Bottom 31), the surprise team, and the disappointment.




AAC: Power Index (0)
Surprise: Tulane (6-1)-I predicted a 4-8 campaign for the Green Wave, but they have been pleasantly overachieving.
Disappointment: Houston (3-3)- I predicted a 10-2 season for the Cougars and they have no desire to finish even remotely close to that prediction.


ACC: PI (+3)
S: Syracuse (6-0)- The Orange are getting it done and perhaps have saved Dino Babers his job, but it is a rough schedule remaining, starting in Death Valley against Clemson on Saturday.
D: Miami (3-3)- The Hurricanes were waxed by Middle Tennessee State at home and have struggled to establish an offensive identity.



Big 12: PI (+6)
S: Kansas (5-2)- The Jayhawks played a meaningful game against Duke earlier this year. If that sentence doesn't summarize how weird this season has been, I don't know what does.
D: Baylor (3-3)- It's tough to decide if Baylor or Oklahoma should be in this spot, but I did have the Bears finishing a little better after last year's impressive campaign.


Big Ten: PI (+6)
S: Illinois (6-1)- The Illini are tied for the third-best record in the Big Ten and should be favored to win all but one of their five remaining games (Michigan).
D: Wisconsin (3-4)- This came down to the fact that Michigan State won the head-to-head last week or else Sparty would be here. The Badgers have been so disappointing that they fired Paul Chryst.


CUSA: PI (-1)
S: Rice (3-3)- Everyone in Conference USA is about where I expected them to be, but I only had the Owls winning two games this year, so this is a safe bet.
D: FAU (3-4)- I had these Owls making a bigger splash in the conference, but if they win out from here, then my prediction is spot on.


Independents: PI (N/A)
S: UConn (3-5)- The Huskies won just three games in the previous three seasons and narrowly picked up a fourth last weekend as they find success for them under Jim Mora Jr.
D: Notre Dame (3-3)- The Irish killed their momentum by getting stuffed by one of the worst defenses in the nation (Stanford) in South Bend.


MAC: PI (-4)
S: Buffalo (4-3)- The Bulls started 0-3 including an embarrassing loss to Holy Cross (FCS), but they've rattled off four straight wins and look to be in control of the MAC East.
D: Everybody else that isn't Toledo: The bottom keeps picking off the top and therefore sends everyone to the middle. EMU had a chance to go to 5-2, but instead, NIU improved to 2-5. Currently, there are only five of the 12 teams with a winning record, and four of them are 4-3.


MWC: PI (-2)
S: UNLV (4-3)- I had the Rebels winning three games all year, so this is a plus for them.
D: Most of the conference, but especially Fresno State (2-4)-The Bulldogs have not been great in Jeff Tedford's return as the head ball coach.


PAC 12: PI (+3)
S: UCLA (6-0)- The Bruins could have easily been 5-1 after a near upset by South Alabama, but UCLA and USC and making sure their last two years in the PAC 12 are good ones.
D: They are who we thought they were: Colorado is bad, but that was expected, ASU lost to EMU and fired Herm Edwards, but the Sun Devils, Wildcats, and Cal Bears were expected to be bottom-tier teams and they are hitting those marks so far.


SEC: PI (+8)
S: Tennessee (6-0)- A wild finish in Knoxville left the Vols without a defeat and goalposts.
D: Texas A&M (3-3)- Did you know that the Aggies have the same amount of wins as Vanderbilt does this year?


Sun Belt: PI (+1)
S: James Madison (5-1)- The Dukes were built for the transition from FCS to FBS, but no one thought they would be ranked in their first year.
D: App State/Louisiana (3-3)- These two have found themselves in the conference championship three of the last four seasons, but it looks like one of these two will be MIA went the 2022 event comes around.




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